Initial fasting plasma glucose levels outside of 80 to 94 mg/dL linked to increased risk for diabetes
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 29, 2025 (HealthDay News) — Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), age, body mass index (BMI), and male sex are all associated with development of diabetes, according to a study published online Jan. 23 in JAMA Network Open.
Aoife M. Egan, M.B.B.Ch., Ph.D., from the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and colleagues conducted a retrospective community-based cohort study using data for 44,992 individuals with at least two FPG measurements from Jan. 1, 2005, to Dec. 31, 2017. Individuals were excluded if they met criteria for diabetes on or before their first FPG measurement.
Overall, 3,879 individuals (8.6 percent) developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 6.8 years. The researchers found that the Kaplan-Meier 10-year cumulative risk for incident diabetes was 12.8 percent. An increased risk for diabetes was seen in association with all initial FPG levels outside a range of 80 to 94 mg/dL (hazard ratios, 3.49 and 12.47 for FPG <70 and 120 to 125 mg/dL, respectively). Male sex, older age (60 years and older), and any abnormal category of BMI (including BMI <18.5 and ≥40 kg/m2) were also independent risk factors (hazard ratios, 1.31, 1.97, 2.42, and 4.03, respectively). A significant additive association of variables was seen, especially FPG level and BMI. For example, the estimated 10-year diabetes risk was 7.0 percent for a woman aged 55 to 59 years with a BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2 and an FPG level of 95 to 99 mg/dL. The risk increased to 13.0 percent if the BMI was 30 to 34.9 kg/m2 and to 28.0 percent if the FPG level also increased to 105 to 109 mg/dL. To facilitate individual classification into one of four risk categories, the investigators developed a nomogram.
“These variables facilitate an individualized risk-to-benefit assessment when discussing strategies to lower progression to diabetes and associated comorbidities,” the authors write.
One author disclosed ties to Novo Nordisk and Rezolute.
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