58 percent of cases expected in traditionally high-incidence areas; 42 percent expected to occur in lower-incidence areas
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
THURSDAY, July 10, 2025 (HealthDay News) — Among young people born in 2008 to 2017, 15.6 million lifetime gastric cancer cases are expected globally, with more than three-quarters attributable to Helicobacter pylori, according to a study published online July 7 in Nature Medicine.
Jin Young Park, Ph.D., from the International Agency for Research on Cancer in France, and colleagues projected the future burden of gastric cancer, including that attributable to H. pylori, among a cohort of young people born in 2008 to 2017. In the absence of intervention, expected gastric cancer cases were quantified in 185 countries by combining national age-specific incidence rates and cohort-specific mortality rates.
The researchers found that within these birth cohorts, 15.6 million lifetime gastric cancer cases are expected globally, of which 76 percent will be attributable to H. pylori. Of the cases, two-thirds will be concentrated in Asia, followed by the Americas and Africa. Overall, 58 and 42 percent of cases are expected in traditionally high-incidence areas for gastric cancer and in lower-incidence areas, respectively, owing to demographic changes, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where the future burden may be sixfold higher than estimated in 2022.
“Our future estimates highlight an increasing burden of gastric cancer in areas traditionally considered to have low incidence, including Africa, and are of immediate relevance to public health decision-makers seeking to recalibrate prevention strategies based on local cancer profiles,” the authors write.
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