Cancer cases and deaths projected to nearly triple in low-HDI countries by 2050 compared with moderate increase in very high-HDI countries
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
THURSDAY, Nov. 7, 2024 (HealthDay News) — Cancer disparities are evident across the Human Development Index (HDI) and are projected to increase by 2050, according to a study published online Nov. 5 in JAMA Network Open.
Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Ph.D., M.P.H., from The University of Queensland in Australia, and colleagues measured the global burden of 36 cancers in 2022 by sex, age, and geographic location in a cross-sectional study using population-based data for 185 countries and territories.
The researchers projected that 35.3 million cancer cases are expected worldwide by 2050, representing a 76.6 percent increase from the 2022 estimate of 20 million. Likewise, 18.5 million cancer deaths are projected, representing an 89.7 percent increase from the 2022 estimate of 9.7 million. Compared with a moderate increase in very high-HDI countries, cancer cases and deaths are projected to nearly triple in low-HDI countries by 2050 (142.1 versus 41.7 percent for cancer cases; 146.1 versus 56.8 percent for cancer deaths). In 2022, men had a higher incidence and greater number of deaths than women; by 2050, this disparity is projected to widen by up to 16.0 percent. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) for all cancers was 46.6 percent in 2022, with higher MIRs for pancreatic cancer, among men, among those aged 75 years or older, in low-HDI countries, and in the African region (89.4, 51.7, 64.3, 69.9, and 67.2 percent, respectively).
“Strengthening health care access and quality, including universal health insurance coverage, and health care systems in the prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment of cancer will be paramount for improving clinical outcomes and slowing projected trends,” the authors write.
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